Probably Overthinking It

Probably Overthinking It is for anyone who wants to use data to better understand the world. It explains the most important ideas using clear prose and data visualization instead of equations and code.

This book is my tribute to the power of data to answer questions, settle debates and help us make better decisions. But it’s easy to get it wrong, and sometimes mistakes have consequences.

Order Probably Overthinking It from the publisher and use the code UCPNEW for 30% off. You can also order from Amazon, Barnes and Noble or, if you want to support independent bookstores, from Read more about the book at Goodreads.

The book is based on my blog, also called Probably Overthinking It, where I have posted some excerpts.

Supporting code for the book is in this GitHub repository.

I have presented several talks based on chapters of the book:

  • “The Inspection Paradox is Everywhere” at PyData NYC 2019. Slides, Video.
  • “Chasing the Overton Window” at PyData NYC 2022. Slides, Video.
  • “Causation, Collision, and Confusion” at ODSC East 2023. Slides
  • “Taming Black Swans” at SciPy 2023. Slides, Video.
  • “Extremes, outliers, and GOATS: on life in a lognormal world” at PyData Global 2023. Slides, Video coming soon