Probably Overthinking It

Probably Overthinking It is for anyone who wants to use data to better understand the world. It explains the most important ideas using clear prose and data visualization instead of equations and code.

This book is my tribute to the power of data to answer questions, settle debates and help us make better decisions. But it’s easy to get it wrong, and sometimes mistakes have consequences.

Probably Overthinking It will be published by the University of Chicago Press in late 2023. You can pre-order it now from Amazon, Barnes and Noble, or directly from the publisher. Read more about it at Goodreads.

The book is based on my blog, also called Probably Overthinking It, where I have posted some excerpts.

Supporting code for the book is in this GitHub repository.

I have presented several talks based on chapters of the book:

  • “The Inspection Paradox is Everywhere” at PyData NYC 2019. Slides, Video.
  • “Chasing the Overton Window” at PyData NYC 2022. Slides, Video.
  • “Causation, Collision, and Confusion” at ODSC East 2023. Slides
  • “Taming Black Swans” at SciPy 2023. Coming soon.